Hillary Clinton’s new essay on the US role in Asia makes clear the United States is there to stay. There’s little China can do about it.
By Minxin Pei
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spelled out Washington’s policy toward Asia in an essay in Foreign Policyreleased earlier today. Although the elaboration of this policy seems belated with the Obama administration approaching the end of its third year in office, Clinton spared no pains in describing and clarifying the various components of the United States’ Asia policy.
Among the most avid readers of Clinton’s essay will be senior foreign policy makers in Beijing. The official response to the Clinton statement will most likely be muted. On the surface, at least, she didn’t announce new initiatives or policy changes. The apparent reason for Clinton issuing this document now is to reassure regional allies of the continuing US commitment to the region in spite of its domestic difficulties and rising isolationist sentiments, and to send a strong signal to China that Washington will maintain its current policy of deepening engagement with Beijing. It’s anybody’s guess whether she chose to time her statement on Asia with the imminent arrival of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (who will become China’s top leader in 2012) in Washington for his important official visit in November.
However, a closer reading of the document is sure to produce mixed feelings in Beijing. Chinese officials will pay special attention to Clinton’s Asia policy statement at three levels.
Of the most immediate interest to the Chinese is the part on bilateral relations. Here they would most probably feel pleased. She not only placed deepening relations with emerging powers, including China, as the second most important policy component, but also devoted the largest portion of her essay, about one-seventh, to US-China relations. (By comparison, India got one paragraph, and was lumped together with Indonesia when she mentioned other emerging powers.) An additional reason for Beijing to like the Clinton statement is the positive tone in which she cast US-China relations. She appeared to go out of her way to accentuate those aspects of US-China relations that actively strengthen bilateral cooperation in a wide range of areas.
However, Chinese officials’ mood will certainly grow more sour as they examine the other components of the United States’ Asia strategy at the policy level. In particular, they will be unnerved by those policy actions – strengthening bilateral security alliances (identified as the most important component of US policy), forging a broad-based military presence (which essentially means further upgrading and expanding US military capabilities in the Western Pacific), and advancing democracy and human rights. In Beijing’s eyes, these measures are part of a subtle framework of strategic containment and can harm Chinese security interests and undermine the Chinese Communist Party’s rule.
Of special interest to Beijing would be the announcement, made in the Clinton statement, that the United States will soon deploy its newest high-tech littoral combat ships to Singapore. In addition, given recent signs of a political thaw in Burma and the military junta’s abrupt cancellation of a $3 billion dam project to be constructed by China, Clinton’s olive branch to Burma’s rulers in her statement should undoubtedly cause some heartburn in the Chinese capital. Clinton’s tough statement on maintaining the stability and freedom of navigation in the South China, repeating essentially what she said just a year ago in Hanoi, is unlikely to go down well in Beijing, either. Many Chinese officials now blame the United States for the escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
Even measures aimed at promoting trade and investment won’t escape scrutiny in Beijing. The most worrying initiative mentioned by Clinton in this area will be the Trans-Pacific Partnership – a future free trading bloc in the Asia-Pacific that excludes China. Even though this American initiative remains in its conceptual stage, its long-term strategic implications may be too unpleasant for Chinese officials to contemplate.
Taken together, at the strategic level, the Clinton statement will be seen in Beijing simply as another declaration that the United States is determined to remain as Asia-Pacific’s pre-eminent power. That is probably why the essay is titled ‘America’s Pacific Century.’ The strategic message to every country in the region, particularly China, is crystal clear: don’t count us out and don’t even think about pushing us out.
Seeing itself as the inevitable regional hegemon, and the United States a declining superpower, China can’t be pleased by this bold assertion of American resolve. But in reality, there’s little China can do, either today or in the foreseeable future, to change this strategic reality. The staying power of US pre-eminence in Asia doesn’t solely depend on Washington’s absolute or even relative capabilities (which are declining). It is derived from the United States’ unique role as Asia’s strategic balancer. Elsewhere in the world, the United States may be deeply resented for its power and imperial overreach. In Asia, the American presence is welcomed with open arms. The reason is simple: However unpleasant US hegemony may be, Asians would pick it over Chinese hegemony at any time.
Unless China can do something to transform this geopolitical reality in Asia, it will have no choice but to learn to co-exist and thrive under the shadow of enduring American pre-eminence.
Bill
Sean
a_canadian_observer
Huang
If you think Bill was paid by Chinese Government to say what he feels was truths,then others can also think you are being paid by the US Government to make that allegation too.
From your perspective, these Chinese separatists groups are just fighting to be free and an opportunity to live in a Democratic society without any indepth look at these groups motivations and demands.
From Bill’s point of views, these separatists movements are a product of Western power’s intentions to undermine China stability,social developnments,and peaceful livelihood for all the people in China(including all ethnic groups or religions these activists claiming they are struggling for).
Fairly speaking, members of every one of these groups were supported,funded,and in some case even advised by Western powers.
It would be difficult for most people in the West know whats bad about these Chinese separatist groups since the medias and governments in the West put on so many layers of sugar around these so-called sweet and gentle democracy or freedom fighters that the bitter inner core has never been tasted by people in the free World. China know them from the inside out-fortunately for the Chinese.
P.S. Use the same attitudes to understand these groups’ true agendas the way you would when you view the “Communists China” with doubts and investigative manners and you would spot the tale-tale signs of what they are up-to. Don’t be surprise if you do because the Chinese have been trying to tell you this since forever already.
a_canadian_observer
Huang
“CCP and propagandas” are the two most frequently used or emphasized terms by some bloggers hoping that the “dull and Cold-War era terminalogies” would serve to dis-credit the truths contributed by many Chinese bloggers. Will this work? It works on those with limited understandings with regard to China. It would not be able to withstand the merit-scale from people who have the heart and minds to penetrate all the murky screen of mis-leading informations prevalent in most of the Western news and official channels.
Ironically, it is second nature to people living under communism to know what propagandas are the moment they see them while many people in the “Free World” know the definition of “Propaganda” in a general sense and would accept what ever their respective governments’ say or do with absolute trusts. As expected, the trusts and whole-heartness confidences are the main causes many recent military and political fiascos surfacing from their concealments in the US and a few other countries.
P.S. Deceptions and truths are equally NOT easy to be tell. Nevertheless, a clear conscience and an un-corruptable mind usually enable one to see through many of tricks put forth by illusionary schemes.
ExBridgePlayer
Harry
John Chan
Het Xay
ozivan
Havoc
BP
Tom
exBridgePlayer
Huang
The entire global economy is in trouble right now and that means the country or countries you identified yourself with is also in trouble too.
Of course you may be wishing the trouble would best be on China alone,but wish and reality don’t always follow one another.
Its bad enough to have a global financial crisis, its even worst to have people wishing mis-fortunes on one another based on fears and jealousies.
John Chan
Listening too much to Hugh Hendry’s hot air will cloud one’s mind; he has been wrong so many years about the demise of China, he is about as good as Gorden Chang. Ill wishes will not arrest the decline of the West.
BP
John Chan
The West is unable to rescure itself right now is due to its ideological inflexiblity, anything works but it is slightly tinted with socialism, it won’t touch with 10 foot barge pole. On the other hand, CCP would use anything as long as it works. It is a total reverse how USA and the West rised at the first place.
Huang
You failed to take into account the trade protectionistic fervors and the likely impacts on a country you identify with( a place where you would call-my country).
China’s consumer porducts are sold all over the World as we speak. The low prices and quality goods are benifiting China and the countries buying those affordable items. In essence, its a “WIN-WIN” situation.
Of course, the first and most simple attitude is to wish(like a dream,it can also turn out to be a nightmare too)that all of China’s trading partners would stop doing business with China in order to bring harms to the Chinese economy. In reality,this shorted and un-wise approach would do quick and more harms to those advoctaing such a “dream plan”. If you know a little bit about international trades, you should be able to understand the logics. Likewise, the Chinese would continue to promote trades and cultural exchanges with all the World nations and people whether you are happy or not.
Finally, If all of the Western economies employ trade protectionistic policies toward China, your very country would automatically be economically affected too. So, be kind and be smart,my friend.
SCdad07
yang zi
Leonard R.
It may not work. But they are very good at it.
yang zi
a_canadian_observer
Leonard R.
I think US sailors might enjoy it too.
Frank
a_canadian_observer
ozivan
John Chan
Singaproe is at prime spot, their premises are very valuable. As a free market capitalist, Singaporean will not let USA use its premises free of charge, but for the long term contract basis, Singaporean might give USA a discount.