2011/10/07
Zhong Wei (Provided by Nomura Research Institute)
Takeshi Jingu (Provided by Nomura Research Institute)The relative importance of the Chinese economy and currency has increased further in the wake of the global financial crisis.
China's 12th five-year plan (2011-15) seeks to accelerate the transition in the nation's economic development model, which has long been an issue of concern. Moves to establish the renminbi as a global currency have also picked up over the last two years.
What kinds of changes can we expect in the Chinese economy going forward, and how powerful is it really?
Takeshi Jingu, general manager of the Financial Systems Research Division of Nomura Research Institute (Beijing), spoke with Zhong Wei, who serves as professor and director of the influential Finance Study Center of Beijing Normal University and is a leading macroeconomic and monetary policy researcher.
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Jingu: Today, I would like to ask you about the long-term outlook for Chinese economic growth. Could we begin with your views on the current state of the Chinese economy?
Zhong: Real growth in the first half of 2011 was 9.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, exceeding predictions that it would be no more than 9.5 percent. Such high growth is unacceptable given how restrictive economic policy is and will probably lead to further tightening in the second half. In particular, I expect tougher structural adjustments in the form of controls over energy consumption and emissions.
Jingu: Some are predicting an easing of policy in the second half.
Zhong: That is unlikely to happen. I forecast 9.0-9.2 percent growth in the second half and 9.4 percent for the full year, which is still high.
